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Post by Art Vandelay on Sept 9, 2020 7:44:44 GMT
Thought we could do with a proper thread. I'll start it off with the Championship points spread prices.....
Brentford Points- 78.5 80.5
Norwich City Points- 75 77
Watford Points- 75 77
Stoke City Points- 68.5 70.5
Bournemouth Points- 67 69
Cardiff City Points- 67 69
Nottingham Forest Points- 65.5 67.5
Swansea City Points- 65 67
Derby County Points- 64 66
Middlesbrough Points- 64 66
Millwall Points- 64 66
Preston North End Points- 64 66
Blackburn Rovers Points- 61 63
Sheffield Wednesday Points- 59.5 61.5
Barnsley Points- 59.5 61.5
Bristol City Points- 58 60
Huddersfield Town Points- 56.5 58.5
Coventry City Points- 56 58
Queens Park Rangers Points- 55.5 57.5
Birmingham City Points- 55 57
Reading Points- 55 57
Luton Town Points- 51.5 53.5
Rotherham United Points- 51.5 53.5
Wycombe Wanderers Points- 43 45
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Post by Art Vandelay on Sept 12, 2020 3:17:22 GMT
I've gone quite big with Bristol City, I don't see much of risk at that price. Tempted by a sell of Bournemouth but might leave that for now, see how they start. In the Premier Everton (53) and Fulham (35) look low risk buys. Also going with Che Adams on football index, bought at 80p, I'm gambling he'll start the season up front with Ings and not sat on the bench. He's up to 90 now but think he's got the potential to be pushing £2 with a good season  If anyone's thinking of joining football index, t hey're making some changes and it's gone a bit weird. I'd recommend leaving it a while. |
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Post by Dane B on Sept 12, 2020 6:12:31 GMT
Looking at those prices Art, I'd rather buy Bristol City than Stoke City.
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Post by Art Vandelay on Sept 17, 2020 7:24:51 GMT
Stoke were priced about the same the last two seasons - would have been over 30 points profit for the sellers. I can see them grinding out enough results to make the play offs this time though.
I don't know if historical preseason prices are available anywhere to check but I think if you'd just sold every team relegated from the Premier for the last 10 years you'd be massively in profit.
Everton up to 56 already. Still a decent price, I can see them being this season's Leicester. Forest at 65, rather buy or sell?
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Post by Dane B on Sept 18, 2020 5:58:26 GMT
Stoke were priced about the same the last two seasons - would have been over 30 points profit for the sellers. I can see them grinding out enough results to make the play offs this time though. I don't know if historical preseason prices are available anywhere to check but I think if you'd just sold every team relegated from the Premier for the last 10 years you'd be massively in profit. Everton up to 56 already. Still a decent price, I can see them being this season's Leicester. Forest at 65, rather buy or sell?Definitely sell at 65 if Lamouchi stays for the season. |
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Post by hblock on Sept 20, 2020 11:03:52 GMT
Does anybody know the best odds on Forest to get relegated? Sounds like a bet I could really believe in  |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Sept 24, 2020 7:11:40 GMT
Best odds 16/1 (lowest 11) on Forest to be relegated. Tempted? Looking at the relegation odds I was surprised Rotherham are as big as 3/1. They seem to get promoted to this division fairly regularly, but I don't remember them ever stopping around very long. I was expecting them to be about evens  |
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Post by usred on Sept 26, 2020 19:56:24 GMT
Should bet on Ings to score every game, guy is on fire.
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Post by Art Vandelay on Sept 29, 2020 7:21:35 GMT
I've never just taken a loss and closed a bet after three games before but Fulham are obviously going down aren't they? What a waste of time, no way Brentford would be that shit. Could be worse though, imagine if Forest had scraped up through the play offs  |
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Post by hblock on Oct 4, 2020 20:44:27 GMT
Best odds 16/1 (lowest 11) on Forest to be relegated. Tempted?
I would have been at the time but didn't get round to properly looking into it and I see now we're only 5/1, which probably isn't worth it.
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Post by Art Vandelay on Oct 13, 2020 8:09:31 GMT
9/1 at Bet Victor only 4/1 on a top six finish.... |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Oct 19, 2020 8:04:39 GMT
Well, Everton up to 62. That'll do, I'll take that - a 9 point profit after a month I'll be investing the winnings in Burnley. They're down to 37.5 now, so virtually no risk and potentially a decent profit. Get on.... |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Feb 2, 2021 8:22:23 GMT
Championship Relegation
Wycombe 1/33
Sheff Wed 2/3
Rotherham 11/8
Birmingham 15/8
Forest 4/1
Huddersfield 11/2
Derby 7/1
Coventry 7/1
Luton 18/1
Millwall 25/1
Hmmm
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Post by Art Vandelay on Feb 6, 2021 8:32:47 GMT
Burnley 11/4 to beat Brighton. Too big surely......
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Post by Dane B on Feb 6, 2021 9:41:43 GMT
Burnley 11/4 to beat Brighton. Too big surely...... I had to check that you hadn't made a mistake there Art. Very generous of the bookies. Double it with Bristol City 11/4 at home to Cardiff. Nice 13/1 double there mate. |
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Post by Dane B on Feb 6, 2021 16:54:24 GMT
Burnley 11/4 to beat Brighton. Too big surely...... I had to check that you hadn't made a mistake there Art. Very generous of the bookies. Double it with Bristol City 11/4 at home to Cardiff. Nice 13/1 double there mate. Neither team won. Shows what we know, eh Art? |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Feb 7, 2021 8:14:43 GMT
Well, I'd still say 11/4 was too big. For Burnley anyway  I'd have advised against Bristol City not on the odds but because I've got a bit of rule about not backing teams that have a big cup game coming up (Sheff Utd in the 5th round in midweek). Probably not as relevant these days with people not as bothered about the cup but I still think it's a good rule to follow. My other rule is never bet against a team that's just sacked their manager. Liverpool Man City to be 0-0 is 12/1 |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Mar 3, 2021 8:27:44 GMT
Bristol City have burst into life recently. I got them at 3/1 to beat Middlesbrough last week but chickened out of backing them again against Swansea  But they're 7/2 to beat Bournemouth tonight.... In other news I've just had a look at the relegation odds and Forest are 50/1! At some places we're only 50 to make the play offs. Really doesn't feel like they're equally likely  |
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Post by randomtask on Mar 12, 2021 20:38:37 GMT
If anyone's thinking of joining football index, t hey're making some changes and it's gone a bit weird. I'd recommend leaving it a while. Good tip Art! |
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Post by Art Vandelay on Mar 13, 2021 8:16:55 GMT
Yeah, best tip on here. Should have followed it myself  In happier news I keep betting on Chelsea to keep a clean sheet. They look really solid under the new bloke and despite having (I think) seven clean sheets in nine they're still quite generously priced. 6/4 for the weekend and 6/4 for the European game in midweek |
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But they're 7/2 to beat Bournemouth tonight....
